Last year at this time, I told you not to waste your summer trying to pin down the next Republican standard bearer. It was too early. Too much could happen. 2012 was a long way off. But with Memorial Day 2011 around the corner, presidential contenders are starting to make their move.
The Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary are about ten months away and by the time Labor Day rolls around, we’ll be looking at a complete field of candidates looking to become the one to face President Obama next November.
Who’s in, who’s out and who’s just kidding? First of all, a number of formidable candidates have officially declined the invitation to the dance. Mike Pence, John Thune and Haley Barbour are going to sit this one out. Plenty of others have either ruled it out or haven’t
made the moves necessary to have any real chance of getting the nomination.
The following are the others. The people who could still run, will run and could win. If you’re a gambler, take notice.
Much to the chagrin of the left, Sarah Palin isn’t running. She’s made all of the wrong moves if she wanted to be president, but all of the right moves if she wants to play kingmaker.
Look for Palin to try to move the process to the right, not jump in herself.
Mike Huckabee is out too. He’s having too much fun and making too much money as a talk show host and author. Huckabee learned how grueling the journey is and he’s enjoying the party a lot more as a kingmaker than a candidate.
Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal have all said they aren’t running. That’s probably true, but don’t be surprised if one of them jumps in to play savior if the GOP hopefuls aren’t living up to their potential. It would take a political disaster to get them to run, but if someone offers you 1000 to 1 odds, it’s worth it to make a $10 bet.
Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachmann and Donald Trump are probably running. I’d definitely bet on two of three. However, none of them have any chance of winning.
Gingrich comes with a lot of baggage and lacks any sort of retail appeal needed in the early states.
Bachmann might play well in Iowa and South Carolina, but the national media doesn’t take her seriously, so she won’t go the distance.
Trump is a wild card, but he has too many sound bites that sound crazy out of context (or in context for that matter). If he runs, he won’t be able to handle the political life well enough to crash the party.
Rudy Giuliani might run, and he’ll fair better than he did in 2008 if he throws his hat into the ring. He’s learned from his mistakes and the ten-year anniversary of 9/11 will remind us what we love about America’s Mayor, but his moment has likely passed.
Ron Paul is running and he’ll make plenty of noise and win plenty of online polls, but his appeal is limited to a fraction of the primary voter base. He’s not irrelevant, but he has zero chance of winning the nomination.
Rick Santorum could surprise some people, especially because most of you probably don’t know who he is, but he won’t hang around past Super Tuesday. Neither will businessman Herman Cain, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson nor former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, but you didn’t know they were running anyway.
John Huntsman might be Barack Obama’s toughest challenger in November 2012, but it could be difficult for this moderate Republican to survive the early fight for conservative bona fides. If he doesn’t win, he’ll be on every vice presidential short list.
Mitch Daniels would probably make the best president, but he might not have the fire and the energy needed to win nomination. If he gets in and shows some fight early, the rest of the field would be well advised to get out this Hoosier’s way.
Most people will tell you Mitt Romney’s the frontrunner. They’re wrong. Romney has the best network and he’s made all the right moves. But he has to dance around Romneycare and his reputation for being robotic.
He’s a great contrast to Obama, but he’ll have to overcome a group of much more likable people to have a chance to face him. If Romney doesn’t win the Iowa Caucus, someone else will be accepting the nomination in Tampa next summer.
Which brings us to the favorite. Huntsman, Daniels and Romney all have a path to the nomination, but that path goes through St. Paul, Minnesota.
Tim Pawlenty, the former two-term governor of the Gopher State is the man to beat. He’s made all the right moves. He has strong credentials and almost zero glaring negatives. He’ll have to overcome his “nice guy” image, but that shouldn’t be too hard for the hockey-loving son of a milkman.
We’re still several months from the first official voting, but unless we see a game changing moment, this is how the field will look when it is time to vote, and when all is said and done. If you’re looking for the smart bet at this point in time, look no further than Tim Pawlenty.
