President Barack Obama has had his problems since taking office, but everyone can agree he’s probably the best politician in the country. His 2008 presidential campaign was nearly flawless and managed to unseat a front runner and defeated a beloved war hero before then-Senator Obama had even spent a full term in the Senate.
It was a thing of beauty from a purely strategic standpoint. It was a blueprint for how to win an election. So as 2012 nears, the president and his advisors are starting to warm up for what’s sure to be a very competitive reelection battle.
Interestingly enough, the president is firing early shots at a couple of Republican hopefuls, but taken out of context, it sure looks like praise.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has been one of the president’s favorite targets in the last few weeks as he’s praised Romney’s healthcare plan – a plan very similar to the one passed nationally last spring.
Another lesser known candidate, but one that might be even more dangerous is former Ambassador to China and Utah Governor John Huntsman. He made a few enemies in conservative circles by accepting the ambassadorship under Obama, and the president isn’t making his life any easier lately as he’s praised Huntsman for how well he worked with the administration.
The political calculus seems obvious here. The president is trying to torpedo chances in a Republican primary that will be heavily influenced by a fired-up base and Tea Party factions.
Any support from the unpopular (with conservative primary voters) president would likely damage the chance that either Romney or Huntsman grabs the nomination. It seems to be a smart move on the part of the president and his staff.
In a general election, Mitt Romney could be a serious challenger to Barack Obama. He’s worked tirelessly since 2008 to build an organization that could rival the president’s, and he’s been one of the president’s harshest critics, but he also hasn’t put his foot in his mouth.
Romney’s biggest problem in 2012 would be with conservatives who worry he’s more moderate than he lets on. An endorsement from (political) Public Enemy Number One probably won’t help his chances of capturing that nomination.
Yet even more daunting could be the 50-year-old Huntsman. He’s been Ambassador to China, so his foreign policy credentials are unmatched in the GOP field, and he was appointed to that position by Obama, which makes him that much stronger.
Huntsman’s record in Utah was also strong. He was one of the most effective managers in the country according to several national rankings. He’s also a moderate. He openly supports civil unions, moderate immigration policy and has a pretty centrist, if not liberal, record on environmental policy.
But he also retains some key conservative positions, like his stance on abortion and economics. In other words, he might be the strongest general election candidate the Republican Party could field. So it makes sense the president would throw his metaphorical arm around him to try and scare away the primary voters.
On first glance, this looks like a brilliant campaign strategy for the president. He’s preventing his strongest challengers from making it to the general election by praising them.
But what if it doesn’t work? In 2008, the Republicans nominated John McCain who was the field’s most liberal member. Huckabee, Romney and Thompson were certainly more conservative than McCain, but he still won the nomination.
Why? He was the best candidate and the most electable (on paper, the actual campaign strategy was seriously lacking). The primary voters didn’t pick the far right purist.
What if they do that again? What if Romney or Huntsman survive the attacks and win the nomination? It’s certainly possible.
Romney just has to sell RomneyCare as a mistake that shouldn’t have gone national. Huntsman just needs to convince the voters he took the job in the administration to serve his country and influence the president’s decisions. Both are doable.
If Romney or Huntsman claims the nomination, then Barack Obama’s move to knock them out will backfire significantly.
Imagine the television ads. “Obama thinks opponent is great,” an announcer might say. Headlines would read, “Obama endorses opposition.” Or even, “Obama hasn’t decided who to vote for.”
It’s a gamble. He’s elevating his opponents with the hope of keeping them from winning the nomination. If it works, he’ll have successfully knocked out two of his greatest challengers.
But it might not work, and if it doesn’t, it could spell disaster for a president that doesn’t have the same electoral momentum he did in 2008. It’s a long way off, but it could cost him the presidency.
In a bold political move aimed at creating problems in an undefined primary, the president, always the politician, may have wounded two challengers, but he didn’t kill them. If what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, then he may have a serious problem on his hands, and he could be the one that suffers.
