Here are nine teams that can win the NCAA Tournament, which starts today.
KANSAS.
The Jayhawks have the smallest margin for error because they play such good defense. Cole Aldrich is the anchor in the middle. He protects the basket with a real understanding of position defense. If this team makes long shots, it is just about unbeatable. Xavier Henry really is the key player. When he is on, the defense has to guard the entire court, and everything, from drives to post feeds, opens up. That is when KU buries teams with its offense.
KENTUCKY
John Calipari is renowned as a recruiter, but that really overlooks how good he is as a game coach. Certainly, this team has NBA talent all over the court, but it is so much better in March than November because it is so well-organized. Get a good look at John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins. This will be their only NCAA Tournament, and it could last six games. Only Rick Pitino has been to the Final Four with three teams. Calipari could be next.
SYRACUSE
As long as the Orange never have to play Louisville, they might win this. The zone was very good in the Big East and should be even better in this setting when teams have so little time to develop a plan of attack. There are actually seven starters and they play really well together, moving as one on defense and sharing the ball so well that all the good shots make them the most effective shooting team in the country.
VILLANOVA
Now that it is free from the Big East, this team should prosper. Villanova plays a unique game that gives it a real edge in the NCAA. Which is why the Wildcats have won 11 NCAA games in the last five tournaments. Offensively, it is a constant attack. Defensively, it is ball pressure and traps. Scottie Reynolds had a great regular season. He is going to need an even greater postseason if the Wildcats are going to get back to the Final Four and then win it.
WEST VIRGINIA
This has been a really strange team. It lacks one of the key ingredients of the modern game, a player who gets his own shot or creates for others off the dribble. What it doesn’t lack is will or toughness. The Mountaineers are killers on the offensive glass, and no deficit is too big. The frontline of Da’Sean Butler, Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones might be the country’s best. And this group will really defend, which will give it a chance in every game.
OHIO STATE
Evan Turner reminds me of a few recent college players who have become great pros, Brandon Roy and Dwyane Wade. He can’t shoot like Roy and is not as explosive as Wade. But he has a great pace to his game, and the bigger the moment, the better he plays. If the Buckeyes can avoid a team that presses and traps (and who does that, anymore?), they will beat almost anybody in a half-court contest because each player knows his role perfectly.
KANSAS STATE
The Wildcats have perhaps the best guards in the country, Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. Neither player can really be guarded. Each can shoot from distance, take a player off the dribble and get into the gaps of a defense. The frontcourt will not dazzle, but it is tough. This team really will guard and get after it. It really is going to come down to scoring. If Kansas State can put up enough points, it’s going to be playing for quite awhile.
BUTLER
This is the most fundamentally sound team in the country. The Bulldogs do not win with athleticism, but with great position defense, timely shooting and the ability to get to the free-throw line and convert. Forward Gordon Hayward rarely makes bad plays. There are four double-figure scorers. Brad Stevens is the best young coach in America. He is prepared, poised and very much in tune with his players. The Bulldogs have not lost in 2010.
Is this team really good enough to win this? Well, it is a serious longshot, but, with all the NBA defections and a weaker than usual freshman class, this is not a very deep field. In fact, one could make the case this is the weakest field ever. There simply are no great teams and not that many really good ones. If a longshot is ever going to win this tournament again, this is the year. And, if Butler somehow does get to the Final Four at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, remember, the school is located in Indianapolis and the Bulldogs do play at Hinkle Field House, where the final game in “Hoosiers” was played.
GEORGETOWN
This list was going to include just eight teams until I watched Georgetown in the Big East Tournament. This was not the team that lost at Rutgers or lost at home to Old Dominion, South Florida and Notre Dame. This looked like a team that can beat anybody. It runs beautiful offense, with the great passing of Greg Monroe and the scoring of Chris Wright and Austin Freeman. I loved how the Hoyas kept coming back against West Virginia in the championship game even though they have no bench and were playing their fourth game in four days. Nobody is going to want to play the Hoyas.
